Global warming: Its significance to us

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

MANAGING FOR SOCIETY, THE MANILA TIMES By Evelio G. Echavez Global warming: Its significance to us

In the last decade or so, the subject of global warming has become a major topic of discussion. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a scientific body that was established by two UN organizations and tasked to evaluate the risk of climate change caused by human activity, has published four assessment reports during the period 1990 to 2007. The fourth report shows that the effects of global warming are becoming more intense: the warmest years (since temperature recording started in 1850) occurred in 11 of the last 12 years and that if trend continues, surface temperature and sea level will rise by about 1.1-6.4C and 18-59 centimeters, respectively. The urgency and importance of the issue of global warming is seen in the selection of the prestigious Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 which was shared by former US vice-president Al Gore, for sounding the alarm over global warming and spreading awareness on how to counteract it, with IPCC which, through its scientific reports, built up knowledge about the connection between human activities and global warming. From December 3 to 14, 2007, diplomats, government ministers and scientists gathered in Bali, Indonesia for the United Nations Framework Conference on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Summit to hammer out a roadmap that will become the basis of a treaty to succeed the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol, which is to expire in 2012, has done little to halt rising temperatures and the rise in apparently climate-related natural calamities. The task of UNFCCC has not been easy as shown by the differing views from the participants. The US, which is the only developed country that has not signed the Kyoto Protocol, is at odds with the European Union, which wants that CO2 emission cuts be made more aggressively at 25-40% of current levels by 2020. The US will agree to emission cuts only if China and India will commit to some targets too. Global warming is closely associated to the accumulation of greenhouse gas (GHG), like water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), and methane in the atmosphere. The largest contributing source of GHG is the burning of fossil fuels (petroleum products and coal) leading to the emission of carbon dioxide. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere act like a mirror that reflect back to Earth a part of the heat radiation, which would otherwise be lost in space. The higher the concentration of GHG in the atmosphere, the more heat energy is reflected back to Earth. With temperatures going up, the large masses of ice and ice sheets in the Earth’s coldest areas are gradually melting causing sea levels to rise. Moreover, the high temperature also makes the ocean water expand making the sea levels to further rise. It is feared that 30 percent of the Earth’s species could disappear if temperatures rise 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit – and up to 70% if they rise 6.3 degrees. For the Philippines with its 7,100 islands, with half of its municipalities located near the coastline, a rise in sea level will put majority of our people in danger, causing massive dislocation and economic difficulty. The Albay Declaration on Climate Change Adaptation, which came out recently in some of the daily papers, contains an action plan that our policy-makers should seriously look into and act on. Time is not in our favor. The time for action is now. (To be continued next week)